Archive for April, 2008
Microsoft – Yahoo Deal
Apr 27th
On Friday morning I decided to enter in some trades that take advantage of the Microsoft/Yahoo deal drama that has been going on for a while. Microsoft set a deadline of Saturday April 26 (yesterday) for Yahoo to accept it’s unsolicited offer of $31 per share. I saw an opportunity to enter into an option strangle on Yahoo with May 25.00 Puts and May 27.50 Calls.
Yahoo is going to move big one way or the other based on how the news pans out Monday morning and whether or not Microsoft or Yahoo have anything to add to the mix. By trading with a straddle or strangle I am able to profit on a big move in either direction, or end up with a big loss on no price movement. While my gut tells me that Yahoo will drop significantly on Monday as Microsoft threatens to walk away from the deal completely, I also wanted some insurance against a surprise increase in the bid to appease Yahoo’s board and facilitate a friendly acquisition.
On this trade, if Yahoo moves down to 20 – I profit at least $500 per Put contract. If Yahoo approves the bid of 31 later in the week – I profit $400 per Call. If the bid is increased, the profits on the Call option increase accordingly.
Because of my feeling that Microsoft will walk away from the deal, I also entered into a June 32 Call contract for Microsoft. I believe that if they walk away, shareholders will cheer and enthusiastically buy the stock up to 35-40, meaning a $300-800 profit per contract.
I am now just awaiting the news and the opening prices for the two stocks on Monday. I expect this to be a very short trade, just long enough to take advantage of the news and get out.
Technorati Tags: stocks, options, investing, market, yahoo, microsoft, yhoo, msft, shaun carter, buyout, merger, straddle, strangle
Gasoline Hits $3.69/gallon
Apr 23rd
In my local area, regular unleaded gasoline rose to $3.69 per gallon yesterday. It is strange that the price we pay for gas in west michigan is always higher than the state and national average, despite having a fuel depot and extensive underground pipelines in my town.
While high gasoline prices are a nuisance, I don’t complain about it simply because in the whole scheme of things gasoline is an absolute bargain compared to many other products we use that are taken for granted.
Prices per gallon of commonly used products:
$75 – Extra Virgin Olive Oil
$48 – Pepto Bismol
$40 – Axe Body Wash
$35 – Starbucks coffee drinks
$30 – Spaghetti Sauce
$25 – Ketchup
$22 – Tide Laundry Detergent
$21 – Honey
$10 – Antifreeze
$8 – 20oz Bottled Water/Soda
$7 – Orange Juice
Now, of course people are going to whine and complain that this comparison is not accurate for one reason or another. Firstly, of course the price of gasoline impacts the transportation costs for all of the above products. The amount of each product consumed will also vary depending on a person’s rate of consumption.
But the bottom line here, is that when compared among commonly used products that we use without even thinking about price, gasoline is very inexpensive. Especially when you consider how gasoline is manufactured and the extensive and expensive processes to get it to market versus something like bottled water or olive oil.
There will also be those that complain of the record profits being reported by the world’s largest oil companies. Well, why aren’t you an investor in these companies? The fact is that the majority of the shareholders of our country’s oil companies are working class Americans who invest in mutual funds! One particular fund I have recommended is Fidelity Select Energy, which is packing on double digit gains recently amid the big increases in the price of oil. The other thing to remember about oil company profits is that as a percentage of sales, their profit margins are very slim… almost always less than 8%, whereas the profit margins of other large companies could be 10-20% and they operate without the fear of a potential “windfall profits tax.”
With the growing demand for oil from developing nations such as china, russia and india, the price of oil will only continue to rise. There is no increase in supply on the near term horizon and oil is most definitely a finite resource. So the “pain at the pump” is only just beginning. I believe we’ll see $4/gallon gasoline in May or shortly thereafter here in West Michigan.
I drive a small, fuel efficient vehicle and try to limit unnecessary driving. With the weather warming, I plan to begin biking the few miles to work to save on gas and improve my health at the same time.
Technorati Tags: gasoline, oil, crude, pepto bismol, soda, water, olive oil, prices, india, russia, china, shaun carter, exxon mobil
Google 1Q Profits Jump 30%
Apr 17th
Google surprised analysts today by reporting a 30% increase in net profit for the first quarter of 2008. The news boosted Google stock 17% in after hours trading to 525 per share.
Google was beaten down lately because of reports about decreased click through rates and the effect it would have on earnings. But, what many failed to realize is that in the short term earnings may fall – but in the long term the economics will even out and earnings per click will increase to compensate for better targeted traffic.
I have noticed the effect of the decreased click area of Adsense ads on my websites, but my overall earnings have increased with time. If anything will perk Google stock back up, it’s the realization the the slumping economy is not affecting earnings and the decreased click area is helping Google attract more advertisers at a more attractive CPC.
I have been accumulating at levels below 500 per share and doubt that Google will see anything in that range again as long as earnings continue to climb. Any potential advertising agreement with Yahoo should also significantly impact earnings to the upside. I expect an announcement of a formalized agreement from Yahoo within 30-60 days.
I will continue adding to my position on any weakness around the 500 per share price range.
Technorati Tags: google, shaun carter, yahoo, adsense, adwords, investing, stocks, search, technology
American Airlines – Nobody To Blame But Themselves
Apr 11th
I find it ironic, but not surprising, that American Airlines is attempting to “pass the buck” to the FAA for its recent spat of mass flight cancellations because of wire bundles in the wheel wells of their MD-80 aircraft. By acting as if the FAA is the one causing the inconvenience on air passengers rather than citing their own incompetence and laziness in getting required maintenance work done on their aircraft.
It’s true, American Airlines along with all other carriers, were notified by the FAA in September 2006(!) that they had 18 months to check over specific sections of wiring on all MD-80′s in service. So, why is the FAA safety official responsible for enforcing these audits being grilled in congress for these safety inspection orders being enforced after the grace period expired?
I think congress needs to keep their eye one the ball and begin issuing massive fines against the airlines that failed to perform ANY of the ordered electrical wiring work in the 18 month’s they were given to complete it. Had the airline completed the work evenly over the 18 months there would have been very few, if any, flight cancellations as a result. But now that American Air is canceling hundreds and thousands of flights at a time, the damage will be far-reaching and economically devastating.
So stop blaming the FAA, and put the blame where it belongs… on American Airlines and a few other airlines that failed to take the initiative to ensure the safety of their passengers by following FAA mandated safety audit instructions.
Technorati Tags: american airlines, faa, delta, northwest, united, shaun carter, flight cancellation, airplane, airline, md-80, plane, congress
March 2008 Proxy Earnings
Apr 1st
The month of March 2008 is the best yet for my proxy network. My network is comprised of Unblock Youtube and Rasta Proxy.
Unblock Youtube continues to dominate for some great Google keywords and brought in nearly 30,000 visits to the main page and hundreds of thousands of proxy pageviews. I decided to remove the Adversal popunders because there was no way for me to set a frequency cap on them and they were annoying users. That fact is supported by the very steep increase in the number of pages surfed on the proxy as users were more likely to stick around longer when not bombarded by popunders.
Rasta Proxy is struggling and is only generating a few cents daily. The reason being poor adsense targeting/payouts on that page due to a bad domain name. I decided to monetize Rasta Proxy using only adbrite and have been unsuccessful in generating any meaningful traffic to the site. The top 3 Google ranking for Unblock Youtube is what creates nearly all of the revenue for that site and finding a domain with similar SE rank will not be an easy task, or a cheap one.
I have also been using the two proxies to promote my credit card comparison site as well as this blog and have gotten a decent number of clickthroughs from their respective text links. Afterall, it is free advertising.
Perhaps April 2008 will be the month that profit from my proxies tops $100.
Adsense – $38.68
Adbrite – $49.75
Adversal – Discontinued
Net Audio Ads – not fully functioning yet, but could generate another $25-50 per month.
Total Revenue- $88.43
Expenses – Less than $20
March 2008 Profit = $68.43
Technorati Tags: proxy, proxy network, making money, shaun carter, unblock, youtube, myspace, facebook, bebo, rasta, network, internet, adsense, google, adversal, adbrite, net audio ads